Activity 1 - But what if it’s true?

Type I vs. Type II Errors & Pattern Matching:



Why conspiracy theories are rational to believe: 


Description
Instilling in learners critical thinking that “goes both ways” and allowing them to be able to see through both believers’ and deniers’ arguments for every theory they come across.
Learning Outcomes
After completing this activity, learners will: 
  • be able to analyze and evaluate arguments presented by both believers and deniers of conspiracy theories, cultivating a balanced perspective.
  • learn to approach borderline conspiracy theories with a discerning mindset, avoiding immediate dismissal while maintaining a healthy skepticism.
  • engage in independent research to understand historical contexts and psychological factors contributing to the emergence and dissemination of conspiracy theories.
  • learn to ask probing questions and challenge assumptions, cultivating a habit of skeptical inquiry in evaluating information and claims.

Materials needed for implementation
  • Pens
  • Notebooks
  • The activity handouts

Time required
60 min.
Minimum / Maximum group size
4+ learners
Level
Beginner (no prior knowledge required)
Introduction
Explain about the exercise and present the case of conspiracy theories that are rational to believe.

15 min.
Activity description
The trainer explains to learners what a dangerous conspiracy theory is - and what a harmless one could be. The learners will use some of the conspiracy theories they deem fairly harmless or potentially dangerous to discuss the risk of believing in them if they are indeed false and the risk of ignoring them if they turn out to be true. They will split into two groups, each defending the first or the latter case. They need to explain what they think is more dangerous: believing in something that isn't true - false positive - or NOT believing in something that turns out to be true - false negative.

The learners could also use the conspiracy cards from the activity ‘Believe it or not! Conspiracy ranking’ for inspiration.

30 min.
Debriefing
In the debriefing session, learners will reflect on their debate about conspiracy theories, considering the risks of both believing and ignoring them. The trainer will lead the conversation so they discuss the challenges of defending opposing viewpoints and recognize the importance of critical thinking. Learners will be encouraged to identify exemples of a false positive and a false negative in their own example - and discuss whish one is more "dangerous" and why. 

10 min.
Adaptation to online mode
No modifications required.
Further resources
Error Management Theory . To appear in Baumeister, Roy F., and Kathleen D. Vohs, eds. Encyclopedia of Social Psychology. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications, Inc., 2007. Link: https://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/comm/haselton/papers/downloads/EMTencyclopedia.pdf 
References
False Positives vs. False Negatives in Science and Statistics (Type 1 and Type 2 Error): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zf1MLaWIOfQ&ab_channel=DataDemystified
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